The Perils of Prediction in the Physical Sciences:
Historical and Epistemological Perspectives

Have a look at our team members and collaborations:

Our Team

Publications

Browse through our scientific output

Scientific Focus

Explore our research topics
Equipment at Coast and Geodetic Survey geophysical observatory Photo by NOAA on Unsplash

Recordings

See More Information

About

Successful prediction has been a central goal of the sciences. Furthermore, decisions regarding public policy rely heavily on the ability to predict. In this regard, the role of the sciences is crucial, since scientific knowledge is usually a prerequisite for successful prediction. However, the extraction of predictions from scientific knowledge involves several perils and complications. 

For instance, the making of predictions is never a direct deduction from the premises of a scientific theory. Rather, there is a considerable gap between high-level theory and predictions of particular phenomena, a gap that is bridged by modeling, idealizations, and approximations. 

This research project aims at improving our understanding of the perils of prediction from the perspective of history and philosophy of science (HPS), while integrating tools and insights from the history and philosophy of computing. 

It includes case studies in five areas: seismology, high energy physics, quantum chemistry, environmental science, and classical physics.

Have a look at our workshops and conferences:

1st International Workshop – 18/19 March 2021, Hybrid
2nd International Workshop - 7/10 September 2022, Brussels
Now Playing 1/13
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Vasiliki Christopoulou, NKUA, “From Dimensions to Physical Laws: Lord Rayleigh’s Dimensional Approach to Prediction”
Vasiliki Christopoulou, NKUA, “From Dimensions to Physical Laws: Lord Rayleigh’s Dimensional Approach to Prediction”
Aristotle Tympas, NKUA, “On Searching for One More Imaginary Particle and Missing the One Real Planet: Historiographical Considerations on Scientific Computing”
Aristotle Tympas, NKUA, “On Searching for One More Imaginary Particle and Missing the One Real Planet: Historiographical Considerations on Scientific Computing”
Hans Hasse & Johannes Lenhard, University of Kaiserslautern “Created by Prediction: On the History, Ontology, and Computation of the Lennard-Jones Fluid”
Hans Hasse & Johannes Lenhard, University of Kaiserslautern “Created by Prediction: On the History, Ontology, and Computation of the Lennard-Jones Fluid”
Stelios Kampouridis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “There isn’t a single solution to everything”: Predictive Reliability and Hierarchy of Models in Computational Quantum Chemistry”
Stelios Kampouridis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “There isn’t a single solution to everything”: Predictive Reliability and Hierarchy of Models in Computational Quantum Chemistry”
Grigoris Panoutsopoulos,NKUA, “The Changing Concept of Prediction in High Energy Physics: From the Standard Model to the Post-Higgs Era”
Grigoris Panoutsopoulos,NKUA, “The Changing Concept of Prediction in High Energy Physics: From the Standard Model to the Post-Higgs Era”
Miles MacLeod, University of Twente “Doing without Prediction: The Case of Sustainability Science”
Miles MacLeod, University of Twente “Doing without Prediction: The Case of Sustainability Science”
Matthias Heymann, Aarhus University “Climate Modeling and the Perils of Prediction”
Matthias Heymann, Aarhus University “Climate Modeling and the Perils of Prediction”
Stathis Arapostathis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Dusty Predictions: Technoscientific Networks, Research Politics and Regional Uncertainties”
Stathis Arapostathis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Dusty Predictions: Technoscientific Networks, Research Politics and Regional Uncertainties”
Gregory Clancey, National University of Singapore “Predictive Models and Their Markets: The Case of Seismology”
Gregory Clancey, National University of Singapore “Predictive Models and Their Markets: The Case of Seismology”
Iraklis Katsaloulis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Earthquake Prediction: The Greek Case in a Global Context”
Iraklis Katsaloulis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Earthquake Prediction: The Greek Case in a Global Context”
Alex Broadbent, University of Johannesburg “What Is a Good Prediction?”
Alex Broadbent, University of Johannesburg “What Is a Good Prediction?”
Stéphanie Ruphy, Ecole normale supérieure – Université PSL “Should We Still Value the Unpredictability of Scientific Inquiry?”
Stéphanie Ruphy, Ecole normale supérieure – Université PSL “Should We Still Value the Unpredictability of Scientific Inquiry?”

Supported by:

Host Institute:

Now Playing 1/13
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Vasiliki Christopoulou, NKUA, “From Dimensions to Physical Laws: Lord Rayleigh’s Dimensional Approach to Prediction”
Vasiliki Christopoulou, NKUA, “From Dimensions to Physical Laws: Lord Rayleigh’s Dimensional Approach to Prediction”
Aristotle Tympas, NKUA, “On Searching for One More Imaginary Particle and Missing the One Real Planet: Historiographical Considerations on Scientific Computing”
Aristotle Tympas, NKUA, “On Searching for One More Imaginary Particle and Missing the One Real Planet: Historiographical Considerations on Scientific Computing”
Hans Hasse & Johannes Lenhard, University of Kaiserslautern “Created by Prediction: On the History, Ontology, and Computation of the Lennard-Jones Fluid”
Hans Hasse & Johannes Lenhard, University of Kaiserslautern “Created by Prediction: On the History, Ontology, and Computation of the Lennard-Jones Fluid”
Stelios Kampouridis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “There isn’t a single solution to everything”: Predictive Reliability and Hierarchy of Models in Computational Quantum Chemistry”
Stelios Kampouridis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “There isn’t a single solution to everything”: Predictive Reliability and Hierarchy of Models in Computational Quantum Chemistry”
Grigoris Panoutsopoulos,NKUA, “The Changing Concept of Prediction in High Energy Physics: From the Standard Model to the Post-Higgs Era”
Grigoris Panoutsopoulos,NKUA, “The Changing Concept of Prediction in High Energy Physics: From the Standard Model to the Post-Higgs Era”
Miles MacLeod, University of Twente “Doing without Prediction: The Case of Sustainability Science”
Miles MacLeod, University of Twente “Doing without Prediction: The Case of Sustainability Science”
Matthias Heymann, Aarhus University “Climate Modeling and the Perils of Prediction”
Matthias Heymann, Aarhus University “Climate Modeling and the Perils of Prediction”
Stathis Arapostathis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Dusty Predictions: Technoscientific Networks, Research Politics and Regional Uncertainties”
Stathis Arapostathis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Dusty Predictions: Technoscientific Networks, Research Politics and Regional Uncertainties”
Gregory Clancey, National University of Singapore “Predictive Models and Their Markets: The Case of Seismology”
Gregory Clancey, National University of Singapore “Predictive Models and Their Markets: The Case of Seismology”
Iraklis Katsaloulis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Earthquake Prediction: The Greek Case in a Global Context”
Iraklis Katsaloulis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Earthquake Prediction: The Greek Case in a Global Context”
Alex Broadbent, University of Johannesburg “What Is a Good Prediction?”
Alex Broadbent, University of Johannesburg “What Is a Good Prediction?”
Stéphanie Ruphy, Ecole normale supérieure – Université PSL “Should We Still Value the Unpredictability of Scientific Inquiry?”
Stéphanie Ruphy, Ecole normale supérieure – Université PSL “Should We Still Value the Unpredictability of Scientific Inquiry?”
Now Playing 1/13
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Theodore Arabatzis, NKUA, “The Perils of Prediction Project”
Vasiliki Christopoulou, NKUA, “From Dimensions to Physical Laws: Lord Rayleigh’s Dimensional Approach to Prediction”
Vasiliki Christopoulou, NKUA, “From Dimensions to Physical Laws: Lord Rayleigh’s Dimensional Approach to Prediction”
Aristotle Tympas, NKUA, “On Searching for One More Imaginary Particle and Missing the One Real Planet: Historiographical Considerations on Scientific Computing”
Aristotle Tympas, NKUA, “On Searching for One More Imaginary Particle and Missing the One Real Planet: Historiographical Considerations on Scientific Computing”
Hans Hasse & Johannes Lenhard, University of Kaiserslautern “Created by Prediction: On the History, Ontology, and Computation of the Lennard-Jones Fluid”
Hans Hasse & Johannes Lenhard, University of Kaiserslautern “Created by Prediction: On the History, Ontology, and Computation of the Lennard-Jones Fluid”
Stelios Kampouridis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “There isn’t a single solution to everything”: Predictive Reliability and Hierarchy of Models in Computational Quantum Chemistry”
Stelios Kampouridis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “There isn’t a single solution to everything”: Predictive Reliability and Hierarchy of Models in Computational Quantum Chemistry”
Grigoris Panoutsopoulos,NKUA, “The Changing Concept of Prediction in High Energy Physics: From the Standard Model to the Post-Higgs Era”
Grigoris Panoutsopoulos,NKUA, “The Changing Concept of Prediction in High Energy Physics: From the Standard Model to the Post-Higgs Era”
Miles MacLeod, University of Twente “Doing without Prediction: The Case of Sustainability Science”
Miles MacLeod, University of Twente “Doing without Prediction: The Case of Sustainability Science”
Matthias Heymann, Aarhus University “Climate Modeling and the Perils of Prediction”
Matthias Heymann, Aarhus University “Climate Modeling and the Perils of Prediction”
Stathis Arapostathis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Dusty Predictions: Technoscientific Networks, Research Politics and Regional Uncertainties”
Stathis Arapostathis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Dusty Predictions: Technoscientific Networks, Research Politics and Regional Uncertainties”
Gregory Clancey, National University of Singapore “Predictive Models and Their Markets: The Case of Seismology”
Gregory Clancey, National University of Singapore “Predictive Models and Their Markets: The Case of Seismology”
Iraklis Katsaloulis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Earthquake Prediction: The Greek Case in a Global Context”
Iraklis Katsaloulis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens “Earthquake Prediction: The Greek Case in a Global Context”
Alex Broadbent, University of Johannesburg “What Is a Good Prediction?”
Alex Broadbent, University of Johannesburg “What Is a Good Prediction?”
Stéphanie Ruphy, Ecole normale supérieure – Université PSL “Should We Still Value the Unpredictability of Scientific Inquiry?”
Stéphanie Ruphy, Ecole normale supérieure – Université PSL “Should We Still Value the Unpredictability of Scientific Inquiry?”
Lost your password?